IT SEEMS THAT MICHAEL IGNATIEFF'S LIBERALS ARE SPINNING APART faster than a Wall St. investment bank. Advisors and key staffers are slipping out the back door, caucus members are voting however the hell they want and support for the Liberals is stuck like an oxcart in the mud.
How is this possible? The Tories have been shown to be incompetent, mean spirited and not a little bit crazy. The economy is in the tank with unemployment rising, while labour force participation is falling. The Tories were caught spending extra stimulus bucks in their ridings to shore up the vote and then tried to cover it up in the most ham-fisted fashion by first giving only the most minimal information. Then, when Kevin Page, Parliament's independent budget watchdog, requested more info they passed along 4,476 pages of documents rather than the electronic spreadsheet on the computer of the Transport and Infrastructure Minister, Chris Day. Then they attacked Page as a Liberal lackey - even though they created the office and appointed him to the job.
In the foreign policy department, the Afghan mission is going south at high velocity with generals openly talking about losing, and the Americans abandoning the countryside to insurgents. Canadian generals are already beginning plans for a pullout - in other words a surrender, after losing 133 soldiers. For nothing.
In other words, the Tories should be sitting ducks, fish in a barrel. They are the proverbial broadside of a barn. Yet, Ignatieff has singularly managed to miss every time for the simple reason that he is fundamentally a neo-conservative. He can't fight the Tories because he doesn't disagree with them on anything of substance. And because of that, the only thing Ignatieff has to build support for the Liberals is his charm (ahem) and spin. And he has the political instincts of a june bug. Why a june bug? I don't know but I don't imagine you would want your political party to be led by an insect that continually flies into closed windows. Crap, I can't help but think that the Liberals must be truly screwed if they chose him as the "strong leader" after what's-his-face-green-shift-guy: Droopy Dog.
Iggy is now discovering an inexorable law of politics, that a leader of a political party who can't provide leadership, who can't demonstrate an alternative to their political opponents - especially when they are on the bottom, such a leader is doomed to decay. Sooner or later the loyalty that bound his team to him will wear thin and they will head for the exit doors. That's what's happening here. It's the sign of a sinking ship. My prediction is that Iggy's days are numbered - and not a very high number either. My second prediction is that his shoes will be filled by perennial traitor and ego maniac, Bob Rae.
Rae is a sharper political fish than Iggy. He will pull a chunk of people from the NDP into the Liberal camp (perhaps enough to make the difference when an election rolls around). That will send the NDP into a panic and they will (my third prediction) try to stem the flow by accommodating to the pull rightwards - thus proving that the Liberals are a more rational choice for the centre-left than the perennial vote losers of the NDP.* He will pull in Green voters, most of whom are disaffected Liberals anyway. And Rae will be a much harder, much smarter, opponent than Harper is used to. He also knows how to run a caucus. I predict that Bob Rae will be the next Prime Minister of Canada. God help us.
* Hey, don't get me wrong, I hope that the NDP pulls left and focuses on grassroots mobilization behind some real issues - as opposed to stupid bank charges. And I hope they stop voting for the Tories. But I'm too cynical to hold my breath on that one.
22 comments :
" caucus members are voting however the hell they want "
wasn't it a free vote?
What a delightful post. Good one and so true.
There is no such thing as a 'free vote', doesn't exist in this C. I'm not going to vote, it all sux, plain and simple. Let's have a revolution or at least a coalition, because ev. else is too stupid and spinful. I'm done with them all.
Every time I read a prediction that Bob Rae will replace Iggy as if he's the next best thing, I want to puke.
For every 2 dippers Rae attracts, 3 Centre and Right of Centre libs will stay home on e-day.
Mark my words. Rae will do nothing but continue the LPC's sliding slope to guarantee a CPC majority.
God help us.
Mary - It's true that it was a free vote but that, I think, was more a matter of necessity than some open-mindedness on the part of Iggy. After all, the gun registry was a Liberal showcase policy, that has now been defeated with the help of eight Liberals. As the Globe & Mail notes in the article I linked to above:
"Eight of his MPs voted with the Tories this week to kill the long-gun registry. The Chrétien Liberals created the registry, spilling political blood to frame it into law. Privately, in the closed-door caucus meeting on Wednesday, Mr. Ignatieff urged his MPs to stand together and vote against the government. His pleas fell on deaf ears. "
Julian perhaps you missed this from the post:
"perennial traitor and ego maniac, Bob Rae."
doesn't sound like a "next best thing" to me.
And Anonymous there are "free" votes in the H of C when party discipline is relaxed and members can vote according to their "conscience" (can't believe I wrote that with a straight face ; )-
I think you misunderstood the technical term that Mary was referring to.
BTW you are becoming indispensable comrade RBH.
Julian - I certainly don't think Rae is the next best thing unless the last best thing was a cow turd. But, alas, Iggy is precisely a cow turd. And Dion aspired to "turdness" but failed to make the grade - he was just too dull.
I just think that Rae is more smooth political operator than Iggy. More of a veteran. And he'll be able to go toe-to-toe with Harper because Rae's instincts are all to the left of Harper, whereas Iggy's are the same or, sometimes, to the right of him. Iggy's only differentiation is that he's an urbane egghead. As for the Tories' permanent majority - it really depends on Quebec. As long as the Bloc survives (and neither of the other two main contenders implode) there will be no more majority governments. At least not until there is a BIG shift for some reason unconnected to their policies - which don't differ substantially anyway.
Comrade Bel - I am at your service.
OT but are you familiar with this blog:
http://jewssansfrontieres.blogspot.com/2009/11/un-endorses-goldstone-report.html
which reports the unsurprising news that Canada cravenly voted against endorsing the Goldstone report at the UN. The UK was slightly less craven and abstained.
I know the blog but haven't read it in a while. I'll check it out right now. Thanks!
LMAO! There is something very wrong with Canada, when even the supposedly clean-non-partisan, rags keep on, and on, give us the bullshit. WTF do you expect, the revolution? Bring it on, because truly Canada is Lost.
Anon - Try that again...only more coherent this time.
Hi again, do you really expect politics-as-usual? Ain't gonna happen. It's too late, we've been had, and there is nothing we can do about it. Check out the other 'western' states/countries, we're finished as a democracy. Totally done. Harper has Won, WE, the people have lost. FFS, check it out!
Umm Anon you've missed the point of this blog if you think it's about politics as usual.
I'll let you in on a secret if you promise not to tell.... this is a blog dedicated to revolutionary politics leading (hopefully) to the overthrow of capitalism. : O !!
Oh and BTW we never were a real democracy, you know the capitalism thing, so don't fear nothing is lost as of yet.
used to be Bel (for about an hour)
Exactly, now what?
I will never vote for any party led by 'Iggy' — ever. Don't care what they call it. Don't care how much leadership he provides. During the whole run-up to the Iraq war he was the one of the very few people infected by American insanity in a country where most of the people stayed sane. This automatically disqualifies him, there is nothing he can do that will ever erase the way how utterly wrongfootedly he advocated war and death.
Dear RBH:
I have always admired your politics and writing, but I have to disagree with you for once.
I think you are being entirely unfair and disrespectful to june bugs.
Laroquod - you are understating Iggy's many talents. He was also an eloquent defender of torture as a mean of protecting human rights and democracy.
:P
Kim - I take it back. I must have been pining for summer and June bugs came to mind. Perhaps the dung beetle would be more apt...
Laroquod has the definitive reason to never support iggy no matter how he tries to mould his persona. That part of his history is unforgettable and unforgivable.
I'm also with meltr/Bel in that this blog is becoming indispensable. Why have I not been reading your stuff before? Did you recently join ProgBlogs, maybe?
At any rate, very good stuff, RBH! Thanks . . . .
You really have to be some arrogant sumbitch to think you know enough to kill hundreds of thousands based on some theory you have about the greater good with no actual evidence anywhere to support it. Same goes for the torture stuff; where's the evidence that this works or has ever saved a single person, much less freedom? People like Ignatieff are too intellectual for evidence.
Bob - I've been blogging on and off for a couple of years but life kept getting in the way. Been most consistent for the last three months. I read The Galloping Beaver pretty regularly, which is a great blog by the way.
Well, keep up the good work, RBH! You're on my regular reading list now.
Thanks for stopping by The Beav, too . . . .
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