Bye Bye Rob Ford, Hello Karen Stintz

There is the sound of champagne corks being popped and cheers in the streets. Everyone smiles at each other and winks, knowing that soon it will all be over. The hated burgermeister is falling and no one, except perhaps his family, will be sad to see him go. And he has been felled by none other than that champion of democracy, Toronto Police Chief William Blair.

Oh, wait a second. Bill Blair? The same Bill Blair who led the cops in their assault on G20 protesters a couple of years ago? The same Bill Blair who wheeled out props – a la the “Miami model” of protest disruption - and used “kettling” to corral not only peaceful demonstrators but unlucky passersby for hours without food or water? The same Bill Blair whose cops shot a man nine times on a streetcar before tasering him?

Something is rotten in Denmark.

I have watched the left go absolutely bananas with delight in the past week as the official right wing in Canada has imploded. Well, imploded is too strong a word, the game is hardly over for Harper as of this morning. And I’ve also been happy to see the vultures turn on each other. I mean, these guys are scumbags, lets face it. But it has been with growing trepidation.

At the federal level, Stephen Harper’s troubles have nothing to do with his murder of thousands of Afghans in support of NATO’s attempt to subdue that country. It has nothing to do with his shutdown of the national daycare plan that Paul Martin put in place to try and save his own skin, or his scuppering of the deal he made with first nations people. Nor does it have anything to do with his policy record of the past decade – his cuts to cultural funding, his government’s attacks on funding for international women’s organizations that support choice on abortion or domestic religious groups like KAIROS that support Palestinian rights. It has nothing to do with his unbridled support for big oil and their enthusiastic destruction of the environment of Alberta and, indeed, the whole world with the tar sands. Nothing to do with his support for fracking to recover natural gas. The list goes on as to the odious reasons why Harper should be unceremoniously turfed from office.

Not one of those reasons has come up. And the same can be said for Rob Ford. Ford privatized west end garbage collection, leading to a degradation in working conditions for sanitation workers, and worse service. He tried to close libraries and de-fund childcare subsidies for single parents and poor families. He has attacked cyclists and environmentalists. He shut down the much needed transit plan for the city to wage an ideological fight for subways vs LRTs.

No, the reason why Harper is in trouble is a stupid, piddling, little scandal – a couple of his senators took extra expenses – a time honoured tradition in Canada’s undemocratic chamber of “sober second thought” (oh, the delicious irony of that title as I watched Duffy roast Harper last week). His office then tried to head off the scandal by covering the expenses of Mike Duffy. Aboriginal people are living in conditions worse than the developing world on many reserves and working class people can’t afford daycare – and I care that Duffy took an extra $100K?

Sure, it is Harper’s famous arrogance and micromanagement that is bringing him down. And if he goes the way of Brian Mulroney 20 years ago I won’t shed a tear. But we all ought to remember how that celebration ended. The Tory party was destroyed, not by the left, but because it was so thoroughly rotten and hated by both left and right (the right because Mulroney supported concessions to Quebec viz Meech Lake Constitutional Accord). It gave the Liberals 4 terms in office under Jean Chretien and Paul Martin. And it gave Canada the harshest austerity regime in the western world under Paul Martin. The fact that it was not a shift to the left was also expressed in the fact that out of the ashes of the Tories arose an even more right wing party, Reform – whose ultimate victory was that they got to remove the words “progressive” from the “Progressive Conservative Party of Canada” (confirming that they are, in fact, against any progress). In Ontario the NDP was decimated for a generation (by their own right wing policies, it should be said) and replaced by the rabidly right wing Tories under Mike Harris.

Not that the present round of defenestrations will necessarily end the same way. But people need to sober up and take a look at who is putting in the knife and why. That will tell us a bit about why it is happening and why now.

In Toronto the city elite have always hated Rob Ford. Their horse was George Smitherman – a smooth, connected lawyer with right wing politics and a progressive gloss because he’s openly gay. He would have had an easier chance of maintaining consensus while implementing austerity. Ford is a bumbling, personally troubled, brash populist with few political skills beyond brawling and personal insults. His agenda is no different than Smitherman, except in the details (in particular his weird opposition to a transit plan that was supported by the Chamber of Commerce, because gridlock is a big, costly headache for Ontario capitalists). At first, after the election, the city elite reached out to Rob Ford and tried to work with him. Some media supported him, just as they had supported Mike Harris years earlier because sometimes a right wing populist can break the logjam of “business as usual” to put things on the “right track” by harnessing popular anger in a pro-capitalist direction.

But Ford was too erratic, too self-serving, too unable to build a coherent team with a coherent agenda to get through what is needed from the point of view of Toronto’s corporate elite. And they hate him because he’s a trashy, nouveau riche, petty bourgeois piss-tank who won’t play ball the way they want him to. He gets drunk in public and is rude to people. He hangs out with trash and thugs. He behaves in ways that remind them too much of the dirty unwashed masses. That’s why the focus of attacks on Rob Ford has almost always revolved around his personal behavior. Does anybody think that it’s an accident that the police released a photo of Rob Ford taking a piss in a public park? Jesus, I’ve taken a piss behind buildings more than once – because there’s no freaking public washrooms anywhere in the city. Or, horror of horror, Ford has to sneak around to buy drugs? Um, I don’t know if any of you have ever smoked pot but you don’t buy it at the corner store either (and for all we know it could have been pot that Lisi was dropping in Ford’s car – not that I particularly care). Is Rob Ford a hypocrite on these things? Would he attack drug users and homeless people who are forced to piss behind buildings? Of course he would but just because he’s an asshole doesn’t mean I have to be. Build more public washrooms for crying out loud. Decriminalize drug use.

It’s so blindingly obvious I can’t believe the left doesn’t see this. When I talk to working class people who aren’t leftists it’s obvious to them. They know that Rob Ford is being attacked because he looks and sounds like them – he has family problems and swears and drives an SUV and he drinks too much and has trouble keeping it together. Surprise, surprise, so do most working class people (not exactly that constellation of challenges but similar ones). That the left hops on board this attack uncritically and says, frankly, the snobbiest, most elitist crap in attacking Rob Ford does the left no favours. The right wing will win on this terrain. I saw people laughing at Rob Ford yelling at reporters who were at his house and wouldn’t get off his property yesterday. I hate Rob Ford but I was sympathetic to him to be honest. The media are vultures and I’d have lost my shit if I were him too. I don’t find public dismemberment of anyone a pleasure to watch and while the left might think it’s fun because he’s so odious you ought to remember: this isn’t about you, it’s about the confidence of ordinary people to take control of their lives. Public humiliation of Rob Ford in this way isn’t going to raise their confidence in themselves. It’s going to further cement the idea that only rich, slick and connected operators – like Smitherman – are fit to run the city and the country. Notice the different coverage of Smitherman's family challenges about a month ago - his husband disappeared on some kind of binge, part of a long term problem apparently, and the police were called in - to Ford's troubles. Nobody laughed at Smitherman (nor should they, not for that). That’s why this idea that “Ford Nation” are stupid or brainwashed because they continue to support their man is so odious to me. On this one thing they are right – this is a concerted attempt to oust their man by city elites (though they are wrong that it has anything to do with the left).

Or Karen Stintz. Does anybody think that it’s an accident that Ford’s legal dossier was leaked now? Does anybody think that it’s odd that the police – on the basis of a newspaper report with no physical evidence – put their top investigators on the case to nail Ford? Since when have the police followed a politician to reveal his personal foibles or cared about political corruption? I mean, they released a report that doesn’t demonstrate any proof of illegal activity on the part of Ford. If they had any proof they would have arrested him. This is about destroying Rob Ford while there is still enough lead-time before the next municipal elections to rebuild the right wing on city council. This is about giving Karen Stints – who, coincidentally, announced her candidacy last week – a clear shot for the mayoralty. Stintz is also a Tory but one who knows how to work with city capitalists and who saved the transit plan from Rob Ford. And she doesn’t get drunk in public.

I would argue that a similar process is under way at the federal level. Not that there is a conspiracy (I do think that there’s a conspiracy to destroy Rob Ford, by the way) but rather a sense of malaise amongst the elite at the effectiveness of Stephen Harper. Let’s face it, Harper never really represented more than a fraction of Canadian capitalists. But he was the best alternative on offer after the meltdown of the Liberals because of corruption and infighting. But now the Liberals have recovered and Justin Trudeau is a rising star – while Harper’s star is on the wane. Everybody prefers consensus. This is true of workers as much as it is of capitalists. That’s always been the power of the Liberals – to implement the ruling class agenda through consensus, whenever possible, rather than conflict. That’s why they are Canada’s “natural governing party.” The Tories are the fallback position for Canada’s capitalists (and workers, traditionally). With a recovered Liberal Party and people getting tired of Harper’s open Machiavellianism and not-so-hidden right wing extremism, it looks like there might just be an opportunity to restore the historic coalition that the Liberals represented. Harper is now discovering just how shallow his support was in most of the country.

Will any of this benefit the left? Let's be frank, the union movement has done zero to resist austerity (outside of a few pockets of heroic, sectional struggles). Ford privatized garbage collection and there was not even an information picket. There were a few demonstrations against Ford on an anti-austerity platform and the strike by library workers – that was quickly settled, wisely, by Ford’s people before it could become a focal point. But that’s it. The Occupy movement was great - but it was small (compared to the tasks) and short-lived. It never generalized into a sustained movement.

Since the decline of the anti-war movement there has been almost zero public opposition to Harper’s agenda. And, of course, the ever-craven federal NDP under the leadership of ex-Liberal Tom Mulcair, is rushing to prove that they are the new Liberal Party of Canada. We’ll see how that goes for them. Even in Quebec, the PQ, which benefited from the brilliant student movement has managed to turn the debate away from austerity and towards attacking Muslims.

These are, in short, challenging times. And the over-the-top celebrations by the left at the predicaments of Ford and Harper is a sign of desperation. We’ll take any crumbs of hope that fall from the table. Sure, it’s true that splits in the ruling class can be to our benefit but it would be silly to think that the ruling class is split in Toronto. They are united in wanting Ford out – Blair is simply fronting for them. I expect that Ford will be getting some phone calls to offer him a cushy parachute if he jumps now along with a reprieve from criminal charges. The particular madness that is Alberta politics is, of course, always a problem for Canadian capitalists but when the Toronto Sun comes out for Harper’s neck don’t kid yourself that there isn’t a growing consensus at the national level.

So, the left shouldn’t pretend that this defenestration has anything to do with us or with workers or social programs or any of that good stuff. This is a night of the long knives, a ruling class drama that is entertaining, perhaps, but will do little to strengthen the ability of our side to take back that which was taken from us. And, in the case of Ford, the snobbery can actually damage our side’s confidence.

Thank The Occupy Movement For Mayor Ford's Transit Defeat

I'm mad! Muley, mean mad.

Of course I know that it was a revolt by city councillors against the hare-brained, disastrous transit "policy" of Toronto Mayor Rob "I love gridlock" Ford. And it was the sweetest of sweet defeats against the Tweedle Dee and Tweedle Dum who like to think that they run the show like little Mubaraks. Here was Ford's handpicked chair of the TTC sticking the mandate he gave her right back up his honour's rump. It rarely gets better than that. And Ford's attempt at anti-democratic bravado - that the decision of the democratically elected council was irrelevant - looked pathetic and dumb. Even one of his biggest allies on council on this issue, Denzil Minnan-Wong, called him out on it.

But let's be honest, City Councillor got the unity and the spine to take on Rob Ford because of the Occupy movement. Since even before the election the councillors have been on the defensive in the face of the right wing on city council. The "left" voted in favour of Giorgio Mamollitti's motion in support of the most expensive and disastrous police clampdown in the history of the city after the G20. Even though there were already widespread reports of police kettling and arresting innocent people in a roundup that put the October Crisis to shame; of bursting into the homes of innocent people in the middle of the night; of press conference with so-called weapons (like the guy whose role playing, foam arrows were confiscated) that were supposedly confiscated, etc etc ad nauseam.

And after the election of the dynamic duo Ford Brothers it was even worse. Everybody thought they were Skeletor to the left's Wimpy. The left did nothing to stop garbage privatization. Nothing. Oh, they got an impact review that is meaningless because it will be too late to do anything by then.

What happened to change this around? What stiffened spines and made middle ground types - like TTC Chair Karen Stinz - align with the left on council? A small thing: Egypt had a revolution and the Middle East from end to end exploded into open revolt. That victory had the knock-on effect of inspiring movements in other parts of the world - like the Greek general strikes and the Indignados who occupied city squares in Spain. Here in North America, and in Britain, it was the Occupy Movement that was the manifestation of the inspiration generated by Egypt. Occupy Toronto's consistent mobilizations and ability to keep an occupation in a downtown park going for weeks and weeks, building the idea of the need to fight for the 99% on the agenda, had an impact on the political culture of Toronto - and of the continent. It's no accident that Obama started talking out of the populist side of his mouth, using language appropriated from the movement.

And so councillors began to take on Ford, challenging him. Then there was the very successful campaign by the library workers union and the outpouring of opposition to Ford's cuts agenda. And even if the city workers settled for a deal that included significant concessions, in particular for young workers, Ford felt less confident to really go after core union rights. There was also a sense with the Ford brothers' bungling of the waterfront redevelopment project that they were a problem for even the business community, cost them allies amongst the Toronto ruling class.

All of this has fed a cycle of ever larger gaffes and ever larger defeats on the part of Ford. And that has increased the confidence of the opposition on council to take Ford on. It helps that Ford has all the political acumen of a punch drunk bar brawler. When his punches are connecting they do a lot of damage and he can win the support of people who love to see a born loser win. But it doesn't take much for his swings to turn wild and do nothing but hit air and throw him off balance. Then, like now, he just looks like a pathetic bully.

My prediction is that Ford is never going to win a second term. He's used up his political capital and his allies - most of them toadying opportunists or freakshows like Mamollitti - are going to start jumping ship in a Stinz-like fashion. What is needed is for his negative momentum to be maintained by an emboldened council, which can start to dismantle his entire agenda, delicious piece by delicious piece. Given their, shall we say, weak past that's not guaranteed. To keep spines stiff on city council we need more revolution in Egypt and more Occupy, under whatever name they want to use, at home. Struggle can finish off this staggering bully once and for all.

Toronto: Mayor Ford Retreat, Tory Vote Meltdown

Ah, I love the smell of self-inflicted Tory panic on a Monday morning. It seemed only a year ago that things were heading towards Tories at all levels of government. Harper was riding high - and would soon win a majority - Ford won a majority of votes in the mayoral election, while the left candidate (can you even name him?) won less than 15%, and shiny, new provincial Tory leader Tim Hudak was going to crush Liberal Premier McGuinty like a badly matched UFC brawl.

What a difference a year makes.

Sure, Harper got his majority but he didn't really improve his vote. And the NDPs vote went through the roof, representing a big shift to the left, particularly in Quebec. After years of enduring Liberal sycophancy in the face of Tory policies - and Ignatieff's poor efforts as posing as a fighter - the arrival of the NDP will put much greater pressure on the Tories. It's worth noting that one of the first acts by the NDP was to challenge the Tory's punitive back to work legislation against the postal workers, who were locked out by management.

Here in Ontario Hudak's Tories were riding high as late as June, with projections that they could win up to 20 Toronto area seats. But it's been all downhill since then.

In a Forum Research poll from June, when the PCs were leading by a wide margin in Ontario as a whole, Mr. Hudak’s party stood at 33 per cent in Toronto, ahead of the Liberals (31 per cent) and the New Democrats (25 per cent). In a space of three months, the Tories have lost about one-quarter of their support in the province’s largest city.

The Tory meltdown has yet to gather the same kind of momentum in the rest of the province but there is a pattern emerging that hints at the potential to deal a serious hammer blow to the Tories in Canada's industrial heartland. A big defeat here would damage Harper's chances of repeating his majority next election and open the door to a potential NDP federal government.

It's certain that the key is bumbling Rob Ford's endless stream of screw-ups and the possibility of really putting a stop to his austerity agenda. As today's Globe & Mail points out, Ford is ready to back-off on library closings and eliminating daycare subsidies - even though he was still touting them as late as last Tuesday. This partial, humiliating climbdown is a result of the unprecedented outpouring of anger over the fact that Ford lied during his campaign that there would be no service cuts and his and his brother's shocking arrogance and cavalier attitude to popular public services. The solid campaign by the library workers union to publicize opposition to the cuts - and the recent massive Toronto poll that showed Ford's popularity in freefall with anti-cuts sentiment pushing 75% - have deepened the crisis at Ford HQ. Even mainstream newspapers and right wing radio hosts are laying the boots in.

The growing campaign against the cuts - including a recent mass meeting in Dufferin Grove Park that drew 600 - and the likelihood of a big demonstration on Monday, September 26 increases the possibility that we can push Ford from climbdown to meltdown. And a meltdown of the Ford administration will undermine the Hudak Conservatives in a big way. It will help to spread the anti-Tory sentiment beyond the city's boundaries, demonstrating an alternative to austerity and phoney calls to "respect taxpayers" - really code to coddle and subsidize the rich. All of which makes it that much more important that September 26 is massive. Spread the word, invite your friends and family, your co-workers, your neighbours and plan to be there yourself. This could be the moment we begin to turn the tide - and that's something that you don't want to miss.

Toronto Mayor Ford to retreat from controversial cuts - The Globe and Mail: