Layton For PM. Then Keep His Feet To The Fire.

Shoot me. I wrote a brilliant piece of prose and f***ing Blogger had an error and deleted the whole damn thing.

Here's the short hand:
Layton could win - some polls put the NDP within three percentage points: YAY!
Remember Bob Rae (without fondness). The failure of the 1990-95 NDP government in Ontario was not just cause Rae is a skunk - it was their capitulation under pressure from the media, the corporate sector, the state bureaucracy. The only thing that could have saved them and us from the hell that was Mike Harris and the Common Sense Revolution would have been protests against the NDP betrayals. This happened towards the end of the NDPs tenure in office when they cocked up what should have been a shoe-in: same sex spousal benefits. The gay and lesbian community didn't have the institutional ties and baggage that the union leadership had and when it was clear that the NDP was going to betray them, thousands mobilized. That mobilization was the light in an otherwise pretty dark moment and when the Tories were elected it was no surprise that the first to demonstrate were gays and lesbians. If it weren't for that, there probably wouldn't have been a Days of Action movement, with its rolling one-day, citywide general strikes only a few months later. Ultimately that movement was sold down the tubes by the same union leadership that stomped on any attempts to fight the NDP when it was betraying workers, the poor, gays and lesbians, students, etc But all that demonstrates is the need to have clear-headed thinkers and organizers inside the union movement as well as in the gay and lesbian movement, who will resist ANY sell-out, no matter which party it comes from.
So, if the NDP wins the federal government we will have witnessed an exciting and historic event that will transform Canadian politics in ways we can't even understand - multiple party leaders will resign, the NDP will have been brought to office with a wave of sovereigntist MPs and votes (which will transform the NDP itself), and workers will suddenly realize that they can shake things up in a big way when they want to - and maybe not just at the ballot box. All this is incredible and important stuff. But we also don't want to end up with the Obama phenomenon where we elect an inspiring leader and then leave it to him, ending up in a situation where not only is our side thoroughly demoralized but the right wing comes back with a vengeance and viciousness that is the result of workers and progressives having dared to challenge their right to rule.
Let's make this election the beginning of the revolution, not the end.

CPC-NDP gap narrows to three points in dwindling hours of campaign | iPolitics

The Evils Of Massage Therapy or How To Keep A Non-Story Alive

Layton confident voters will dismiss massage parlour 'smear campaign' - The Globe and Mail

What the hell? This massage story is the most stupid, pathetic smear that I've ever seen in my life. Guy goes to a massage clinic to get a massage and is told by the police that there may be dirty things happening there (were any charges ever laid against ANYONE?). Nobody ever suggested that Layton did anything wrong, no charges were laid, there was no follow-up interview. And I say this as someone who - along with my wife - goes to a storefront massage "parlour" around the corner from my house.

It's a complete non-story. The only story here is who (cough, cough) illegally and unethically leaked this story. The media, had they any scruples or sense would be raising the hue and cry about the scandal of such a last minute attempt to undermine a candidate. But no, it's all about Jack making a denial after Olivia made a denial. It's all very leading, as in the famous question: "so, when did you stop beating your wife?" Of course, one hopes that the absolute filthiness of the tactic will blow up in the faces of those who "leaked" this absurdity. And I'll make no bones that I think it was the Tories, who got their fingers burned trying to do the same kind of thing to Ignatieff a few days earlier with a fabricated leak. That the SUN media chose to "expose" one smear, where the price was low since Ignatieff was already sunk, and to publish the one related to Layton, whose momentum seemed unstoppable coming into the weekend, is also hardly coincidental.

This whole pathetic non-story stinks to high heaven. Too bad the mainstream media doesn't have a functional nose to be found.

Exposing Honduran Election Fraud

AN EXCELLENT NEWS REPORT BY THE REAL NEWS which exposes some of the key myths being used to provide a justification to support the coup regime. Pretty devastating stuff, all in all.

Democracy Is Inconvenient To Afghan Democracy: Discuss

BACK WHEN THE USA WAS WAGING WAR AGAINST VIETNAM the motto of the day was that to save a village, sometimes you had to destroy it. In the great tradition of this imperial logic, today's announcement of the election (ahem) of Hamid Karzai as the president of Afghanistan will not come as a surprise.

“His excellency Hamid Karzai, who has won the majority of votes in the first round and is the only candidate for the second round, is declared by the Independent Election Commission as the elected president of Afghanistan,” Mr. Lodin said.

Well, he certainly did win the first round, after all, him and his brother - you know, the drug dealer on the CIA's payroll? - stuffed more ballot boxes than Americans stuff turkeys at Thanksgiving. It would have been a major scandal if he'd lost. A sign of government incompetence of the first order. And it's in the spirit of supporting "his excellency's" entrepreneurial skills that the Obama administration sends their warm regards.

“We congratulate President Karzai on his victory in this historic election and look forward to working with him” to support reform and improve security, the U.S. Embassy said in a statement. Britain and the United Nations also issued statements of congratulations.

"Historic election"? Well, if ballot stuffing gets you that kind of compliment, I'm going to rob some banks, on the assumption that the government will put out a press release similarly commending me: "The Government of Canada would like to send its heartfelt congratulations to Redbedhead for his innovative and inspiring methods of fundraising to pay down his debt. We look forward to working with him to apply his strategy to paying down the national debt."
After all, it's not about how you get there. It's just about getting there, wherever the hell "there" is. In this bizarro world, elections are an inconvenient distraction from democracy. As John Dempsey of the United States Institute of Peace put it:

“Everyone just wants to move past this whole election fiasco and just get on with governing the country. What we've seen in the last few months is nothing but lost time."

Liberals and NDP Work Hard To Lose

IT'S A BIT DEPRESSING READING THE POLLING NUMBERS from EKOS today. But what's most depressing about the Tories building their lead is just how unnecessary it all is. With the Tories now in striking distance of a majority government expect Harper to act as though he had a majority already. Anything that makes a slimeball like Harper and his neo-con toads happy is enough to make you pour yourself a stiff drink.
But we shouldn't get too miserable. After all, the Tories have been here before, on multiple occasions. Back in September, 2008, as the election approached in October, the Tories were at 39 percent, only to fall back to 34 percent by the beginning of October. When the election finally happened the Tories won 37 percent of the popular vote, which was up by 1 percent over the previous election but they actually received 165,000 less votes. It just so happened that the Liberals received 835,000 less than the previous election. Because, well, they sucked under Dion (unlike the roaring charisma of Ignatieff the neo-con professor). The bigger news was probably that the most people ever didn't even bother to vote.  Nearly a majority came to the realization that not only did Dion, with his incoherent and deeply uninspired Green Shit platform, suck - so did everyone else.
All this brings me back to where we started. The truly depressing thing about the Tories temporary climb in the polls is that this is the result of a lack of leadership on the part of any opposition party (I can't speak to the Bloc in Quebec because I'm not familiar enough with what's going on there but the Bloc has kept its support pretty stable, it seems).
The Liberals spent the better part of the last several years propping up the Tories by voting for whatever horribleness they were passing in the House. Their recent reversal looked exactly like what it was - a pathetic and opportunist attempt to take advantage of a heartbeat of growth in their support. No surprise that their unprincipled threat to bring down the government lost them support instead of inspiring it. It doesn't help that Ignatieff not only looks indistinguishable from pretty much any well educated Tory across the House. He is indistinguishable. It just so happens that he has the misfortune of sitting beside a turncoat weasel like Bob Rae.
As for the NDP, ah, well, I weep for the NDP. I received a fundraising email from them in the days following their grotesque about-face on supporting the Tories. Suddenly they were no longer the only party that stands up to the Tories. Now the Liberals were "playing politics" and they were the only party trying to make Parliament work. "So, let me get this straight: you want me to send you money so that you can vote for Stephen Harper's EI bill, which will actually screw workers?"(See page 8) I hate to say I told you so but I did, back when Jack was having tea with Stephen. You could smell it - and it wasn't bread or roses.
All this sounds a bit of a downer but have hope - it's Friday! And the Tories will sink again, as they always do. And next time you say something bad about Quebec sovereigntists, remember that if it weren't for the Bloc, the Tories would already have a majority.

Could The Liberals Get Any More Pathetic?

Not to disappoint his followers that he is a weak, gelatinous leader with neither charisma nor principles, Stephane Dion is mooting that the Liberals will find one more reason to let the hated Tories stand. It's not their popularity. It's not the quality of their policies. Why then? Because the Liberals don't want to fight an election until their poll numbers are better, particularly in Quebec.
Of course, they could boost their numbers by fighting on popular policies - like pulling the troops out of Afghanistan, or a better bail-out package for Quebec and Ontario's collapsing manufacturing base. But they support the war, even if they sometimes make noises to the contrary for the benefit of our shallow media. And they aren't interested in state intervention to save jobs. That is, they know that the difference between the Liberals and the Tories is so slim you could drop in some marijuana and roll it up into a spliff. And they'd probably prefer if we were all high, then, once they finally do jump we won't notice that they are a corrupt, right wing outfit with a weak and gelatinous leader, lacking charisma and principles.

Will Obama Win The Election... In Canada?

Obama is wiping up the map with Hilary. In the last week the Democrat presidential hopeful swept 8 primaries and passed her with the largest number of committed delegates. The excitement around his campaign is astounding in a country that has made electoral abstention a national pastime. His figures for fundraising are out of this world, with well over 400,000 people contributing to his campaign since January 1.
“If the Obama campaign can maintain this fundraising pace -- online donations poured in at the rate of more than $500,000 an hour after his overwhelming victory in South Carolina -- it's likely that Obama will raise upwards of $30 million online this month.”
And people are coming out to see him speak in droves. At the University of Maryland on the weekend, some 17,000 people – heavily youth – came out to a boisterous rally.
Why’s everybody going crazy for Barack Obama?
Well, for one thing he voted against the war in Iraq. And for another, he still opposes the war on Iraq. He also manages to mention the 4 million Iraqi refugees displaced by the US war on that country.
He talks about universal healthcare in a country where 47 million people, including 9 million children have no insurance coverage. It’s true his solution leaves untouched the insurance corporations. But it’s something, and people are desperate.
On the economy he’s talking about tax cuts for middle and low-income earners while reversing tax cuts for the rich. And he’s moderately pro-union, wanting to make it easier for workers to organize into unions and illegal for employers to hire permanent scabs.
Better than a kick in the head, for sure, but it’s hardly radical stuff and he’s hardly a radical guy. In fact, he’s not very good on any number of issues, including Iran, against which he has refused to rule out a military strike though to be fair he has since backed off on that and talked up diplomacy. And he’s a whole-hog supporter of Israel in its war against the Palestinians (and Lebanon and…). But after eight years of Bush, it's like mana from heaven.
And there’s another element – he’s black. This is a nation built on the backs of African slaves. This is the nation of the KKK, segregation and the murder of Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. This is the nation of Rodney King and the post-Katrina ethnic cleansing of New Orleans.
Does it matter to us up here in Canada?
If there’s an increase in anti-war rhetoric and a momentum behind Obama as the “anti-war candidate”, there is no way that this won’t hurt the Tories who are the Canadian branch of the Neo-Conservative Loony Society.
Harper has toed the Bush line more than Bush himself. He is a unilateralist war monger. He's done everything he could to scuttle Kyoto - and any meaningful climate action. The Tories have tried to undermine abortion rights and roll back gay marriage.
A wave of support for someone who's reputation is for progressive change - even if it outstrips his actual politics - will be a powerful counter-example of a continental shift and that will hurt Harper. It will also give confidence to the ever-opportunist Liberals that the way to victory is by campaigning on a progressive platform.
In any case, I think it may be too late for the Tories – because of the economy, because of the war, because of Obama. But I’m a notorious optimist.
In the here and now, if I were in the USA would I vote for Obama? Would I work on his campaign?
Wow, that’s tough. Here’s what I know: the Democrats are the second-wing of America’s two party capitalist dictatorship – not to put too fine a point on it. They are owned lock, stock and barrel by the corporations who contribute most of the party’s cash. They are the party of slavery, segregation, Vietnam, war in the Balkans, the bombing of Iraq and Sudan, the doubling of the prison population, etc etc. They are a vile corrupt machine.
But if they are drawing in masses upon masses of anti-war youth on the campuses and politicizing them, it would be foolish to turn down the opportunity and stand on the sidelines. Just telling people – “the Democrats won’t change anything” – isn’t sufficient. The only serious question that I can see in this is: is it possible to use the Obama campaign to deepen anti-war and anti-corporate organizing on the campuses and in the communities? Because regardless of Obama’s sincerity, there will be no change, including no phased withdrawal of troops, unless there’s mobilizing on the streets, campuses and communities. That’s a question that activists in the USA will have to ask and answer themselves.
What I do know is that if the Republicans are defeated by a young, black man known as an opponent of the war in Iraq, it will be electric. And I want to see it happen.

Dissecting Tory Election Schemes

All of a sudden Mr. Harper is gung-ho to force an election. Whatever could be on our evil little gnome’s mind? Could it be this: a small case of the panics?
You see, the Tories have been stuck in the polls since they won their minority government back in 2006. And, frankly, they only won what they have now because the Liberals were tearing flesh off of each other in the media and Quebec nationalists were in the doldrums with an inept (and right wing) provincial leader of the PQ managing to thoroughly alienate their base of support.
Those conditions no longer prevail and the window is quickly closing on the possibility of repeating even a minority government.
As of last summer the Tories were at 33% according to a Strategic Counsel poll conducted in August, 2007 and which I analyzed at the time.
Now, according to a Nanos poll, the Tories have slumped another two percent to 31 percent nationally. But in the key province of Quebec they are down to 23 percent, from 29 percent at the last election – and all that support has returned to the Bloc.
In Atlantic Canada the Tories have collapsed even further, from 30 percent on November 8, to 22 percent today. All of that – and a 6-point drop for the Liberals – has gone to the NDP and the Green Party.
Even in the West they’ve been hovering around the 40 percent mark from their high of 49 percent at the last election.
So, why is Harper throwing all these confidence motions at Parliament right now? Why does he appear to be trying to force an election?
REALIZATION
What the Tories must have realized is that, by and large, most Canadians think they are odious but bearable creatures. Their only attraction is creating a polarizing issue on their terms, which bumps their numbers. These electoral adrenalin shots quickly subside but they can be enough for an election.
That explains the three things that Harper has said will force an election. The first is an omnibus crime bill. North Americans are notoriously crime paranoid. Conservatives always love the law and order button because it’s irrational and bears no relation to reality. And they are, after all, a movement built on irrational fear and scapegoating. They are the Crazy Party.
If the Tories can grab the mantle of being the law and order party, find some gullible victims of horrendous interpersonal violence, and put them on a stage, their numbers will climb. If they can say that the Liberal dominated Senate is blocking their kooky crime bill, their numbers will climb. It’s a sad truism about western societies, which I’ll save for another day, we’re crime crazy.
The second confidence issue is the budget, which they must bring down soon. Budgets are always confidence votes because they set the major priorities for any government. The Tories already cocked up any political capital they might have gotten from the budget. They did this by refusing to release provincial payments worth $1 billion to help out the rapidly de-industrializing regions of Ontario and Quebec. The condition they placed on the payment was that the budget had to pass, thinking that the Bloc would be forced to support the Tory budget. When they realized that everybody else saw this as crass and vindictive they backed off but the damage was already done.
I suspect that the Tories are hoping they don’t even get to the budget but instead go to an election on either crime or the other confidence motion – Afghanistan.
Now, the Tories are the party of irrational craziness but generally their own strategy is more akin to being crazy like a fox – at least since they ditched Stockwell “Jet Ski” Day as leader. However, I have to wonder if this isn’t equally crazy.
The Conservatives have put forward a motion to extend the mission in Afghanistan to 2011, if NATO comes up with an extra 1,000 troops plus some equipment commitments, like helicopters. Now, as of last August 63 percent of the population felt that their support for the Tories would rise if they pulled troops out of Afghanistan immediately. And a poll on February 6 indicated that opposition is still running high:
“An Angus Reid poll Wednesday shows 76 per cent think Canada is shouldering too much of the burden of NATO's mission and 58 per cent want the mission to end in 2009.”
This comes on top of a report by the Senlis Council think-tank, which says that Afghanistan is on the brink of “state failure.”
But what the Tories are counting on is a promise by the French government of an equally right-wing dirt-bag, Nikolas Sarkozy, that they will pony up more troops and equipment.
They hope that the motion is voted down at the same time the French make the announcement, then they can play it as “the Liberals want to let down our allies in the fight for democracy just as they are stepping up to the plate.” It will become a question of honour and betrayal.
Frankly, it’s a big gamble on the part of the Tories. But big gambles are the product of, if not panic, at least a sense of being backed into a corner. The attempt to burrow into the mainstream has failed and now it’s going to be the single-issue, dirty fight.
The conclusion to all this? Well, there’s an international week of action in the lead up to March 15 – the fifth anniversary of the launch of the war against Iraq. If you want to see the Tories out, the protests on March 15 have to be as big we can make them. They have to help hold the mood steady and stiffen the spines of politicians who are apt to choke at the idea of taking a real stand during an election.
We are propping up a corrupt, vile regime of human rights abusers and druglords using billions of dollars and barrels of blood. It’s the Tories weak spot and we need to hit them where they are weak.