President Mohammad Morsy and the Muslim Brotherhood, from
which he comes, continued to resist popular pressure with a half-hearted
concession combined with more threats on Saturday.
A meeting was held at the presidential palace with
“opposition figures” that mostly included his supporters and opposition figures
who are marginal to the present movement. No central figures or opposition
parties were represented, having boycotted the summit.
Afterwards Morsy’s Prime Minister announced that his
constitutional decree would be mostly rescinded but that the contentious
referendum on the constitution draft would go forward.
This threatens to split the movement by granting what had
been one of the demands of the movement. However, as many activists pointed
out, this concession is effectively meaningless since the decree was intended
to insure that the draft constitution that was agreed in a marathon session of
the Constituent Assembly went forward.
More worryingly, statements by the Brotherhood leadership
indicated a continued hardline against protests, which has already led to
hundreds of injuries and several deaths. Morsy’s aides also mooted the
possibility of declaring a form of martial law if protests continued. The
military also announced that it would enter the fray if the instability
continued.
This is an indication that the military leadership will come
down on the side of Morsy and the Brotherhood. After decades of repressing the
Brotherhood this seems like an anachronism. But in reality it’s not surprising
since the constitutional draft guarantees that the military will retain its
status as a “state within the state”. They are granted immunity from democratic
oversight, including of the military budget. It also allows the military to try
civilians in military courts and does nothing to challenge the military’s
enormous economic power. Some estimates have the military controlling up to 20
per cent of the Egyptian economy.
The constitution draft also permits the repression of the
media, including the arrest of journalists and shutting down media. It also
effectively outlaws independent unions by forbidding any industry from having
more than one union representing workers – meaning that the state controlled
unions cannot be challenged.
The Brotherhood leaders also used sectarian attacks on the
Coptic Christian minority in their press statements.
The main opposition organizations, however, continue to call
for mobilizations before the referendum, set for December 15. The fact that
Morsy is turning to the military is a sign of how desperate they are to contain
the present crisis. Likewise the attempts at partial concessions.
If the
mobilizations can deepen and spread – as they seemed to do on Friday with
demonstrations even in rural areas that have historically been Brotherhood
strongholds - the slow and partial retreat of Morsy and the Brotherhood can
become more pronounced. If nothing else it will ensure a large “no” vote in the
referendum that will lay the basis for future struggles to extend the rights of
woman, minorities and workers.
