Tuesday, September 8, 2009

O, Brother, Can You Spare An F-16

As a final post-Air Show rejoinder to the debates that have taken place, I wanted to post this blog piece from The Arabist - an Egyptian socialist blog - about the role of US arms sales [the pie chart on the left shows global shares of arms sales, excluding China] in the region. It's a good piece - and a very good blog for info on Egypt and the Middle East - and I will only add a couple of points here to that article, attached below.
The first is from a reuters article about growing US arms sales in the recession. It notes that the top purchasers of US weapons are dictatorships and human rights abusers:
"More than half of the top 25 U.S. arms purchasers in the developing world were 'undemocratic governments or regimes that engaged in major human rights abuses,' in 2006 and 2007, the [New America] foundation said in a report last week.
And also:
"He said his organization had found a 92 percent "correlation" between rising oil prices and rising U.S. arms sales."
The Wiki article on the arms industry has also some fascinating reading and is worth a visit. It notes, for instance, the importance of weapons to the Cold War when both the US and USSR used weapons transfers to win influence, particularly in the Third World. It then goes on to state:
"Since the fall of the Soviet Union, global arms exports initially fell slightly, but have since 2003 grown again, and now come close to Cold War levels.[5] The United States is the overall top supplier of weapons. The United States is also the top supplier of weapons to the developing world, accounting for around 36% of worldwide weapons sales, followed by Russia, Britain, Germany, and China.[6][7]"


Oh Brother, Can You Spare an F-16
How the Middle East is providing recession protection for government-connected US weapons manufacturers:

WASHINGTON — Despite a recession that knocked down global arms sales last year, the United States expanded its role as the world’s leading weapons supplier, increasing its share to more than two-thirds of all foreign armaments deals, according to a new Congressional study.

The United States signed weapons agreements valued at $37.8 billion in 2008, or 68.4 percent of all business in the global arms bazaar, up significantly from American sales of $25.4 billion the year before.

The increase in American weapons sales around the world “was attributable not only to major new orders from clients in the Near East and in Asia, but also to the continuation of significant equipment and support services contracts with a broad-based number of U.S. clients globally,” according to the study, titled “Conventional Arms Transfers to Developing Nations.”
Note that it’s not just Middle Easterners paying out of pocket for this, but also the American taxpayer who is underwriting some of these purchases in form of military aid designed to redirect US funding to those arms manufacturers. This is not just a question of US jobs in this sector, since many of these manufacturers collaborate with foreign firms, and of course their profits are shared among their global shareholders, not just American ones.
And it’s not just oil-rich states. The article adds:
The top buyers in the developing world in 2008 were the United Arab Emirates, which signed $9.7 billion in arms deals; Saudi Arabia, which signed $8.7 billion in weapons agreements; and Morocco, with $5.4 billion in arms purchases.
Morocco is a relatively resource-poor state that receives considerable amounts of aid (from the West and from Gulf allies) and faces no serious conventional threat; yet it has for instance decided to get a bunch of F16s. Its regional rival is Algeria, in the context of the Western Sahara conflict, and Algeria is itself making significant purchases (especially from Russia.) The silly arms race between Algeria and Morocco, two countries that have poor rankings in UN human development reports and deep socio-economic problems, is useful all around: for Moroccan and Algerian generals, for governments selling the weapons (thus cementing alliances and dependence relationships), and of course for the companies. In this context, it’s no surprise there is little genuine interest for solving the Western Sahara conflict or encouraging Moroccan-Algerian reconciliation.

In the Persian Gulf, one sees not only the patterns of dependence of absolute monarchies on this recycling of petrodollars into weapondollars (here’s more on the petrodollar-weapondollar coalition in the Middle East), but also the built-in interest in maintaining high threat levels and the possibility of war (for instance in talking up the possibility of an attack on Iran and its consequences).
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